Sunday, April 04, 2004

Wishful thinking on this scale is no longer unprecedented.

The Bush Administration has issued an economic report predicting that the 2007 level of non-farm payroll employment will be 10 million jobs higher than the 2003 level. This average rate of increase of employment is 10 million jobs over 4 years, and according to Paul Krugman, it is must be wishful thinking on an unprecedented scale that is evidence of a thorougly corrupted policy process.

On the other hand, John Kerry's detailed agenda is to add 10 million jobs in his first term. If you assume that's a net figure, then John Kerry is forecasting essentially the same average employment growth over the years 2005 to 2009 that Bush had forecasted for 2003 to 2007. Has political propaganda replaced professional analysis in the Kerry campaign?

If you believe that Kerry's figure is an estimate of gross employment growth, you might want to ask Kerry how many job losses the economy will generate during his first term.

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