Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Romney and Clinton win Michigan

Here are CNN.com's results with 99% of precincts counted. Starting with the Republicans:

  • Mitt Romney 39%: The mainstream media kept saying the Romney needs to win Michigan to stay in the race, and he did win Michigan. I'm sure that losing Michigan wouldn't have been fatal to his campaign, but it's always nice to be a member of the winner's club.

  • John McCain 30%: He did better than his rival for second place, Mike Huckabee, but I think he was hoping that New Hampshire would carry him over the top here. This makes me wonder if the McCain "surge" from New Hampshire is starting to expend itself.

  • Mike Huckabee 16%: This is Huckabee's second third-place finish in a row now. I don't think that Huckabee is going to quit the race over this (of the Republican candidates, Huckabee seems to be the best at surprises). On the other hand, if Huckabee was auditioning to be the vice-presidential candidate, I think he's made his point by now.

  • Ron Paul 6%: This is great news for Ron Paul, but 6% is another drop-off the 10% from Iowa and the 8% in New Hampshire. On the other hand, he almost beat both Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani combined.

  • Fred Thompson 4%: Grandpa Simpson is still stuck in the single-digits. Conservative talk radio has been helping to prop up his campaign by spotlighting a debate appearance and reassuring conservatives that he isn't just a McCain puppet. It could still be that Thompson is saving his resources for some key battleground state in the future, hoping to turn his campaign around with an unexpected victory. On the other hand, even if he did win a few state primaries, nominating "Aw-shucks" Fred to face Hillary Clinton in the general election would be a total massacre -- 1996 all over again.

  • Rudy Giuliani 3%: Giuliani wasn't going to contend the primaries until February 5. If we see a massive rise in irrational enthusiasm for Giuliani in the mainstream media sometime before then, then we'll know that Giuliani is making his move.

  • Duncan Hunter 1%: He only did six times worse than "uncommitted" this time around. That might be considered progress for the Hunter campaign. I'm beginning to suspect that the only reason Hunter hasn't conceeded the race is that "Current Presidential Candidate" is a line-item on his resume.

  • Hillary Clinton 55%: The other main candidates didn't contest this primary, but don't think that this will stop the Clintons from trumpeting this as a major win. There was even a certain amount of effort from supporters of the other candidates to push support towards "uncommitted", possibly in an attempt to keep Clinton from reaching 50%.

  • Dennis Kuchinich 4%: It must be depressing when you've reached the point in your life where people tell you "don't quit your day job" and you think to yourself "You're right. I shouldn't drop out of the race yet".

  • Mike Gravel 0%: More shadow boxing from the Gravel campaign. The fact that conceeded-loser Joe Biden didn't appear on the ballot must have given Gravel hope that he could finally pull ahead of other conceeded-loser Chris Dodd. Unfortunately, that did not happen.


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